Measles, Mapped

Watch out Chicago, LA and Miami.

A new Lancet Infectious Diseases study predicts that’s where the measles outbreak is headed next. After that: Queens County, New York, Seattle, Phoenix, Fort Lauderdale, Las Vegas…  

The study—by University of Texas at Austin and Johns Hopkins University researchers—mapped the predicted hotspots based on vaccine exemption rates and proximity to international airports shuttling passengers from countries with ongoing outbreaks, including India, China, Ukraine and Thailand.

But this forecast and another last year by the Baylor College of Medicine both failed to spot the biggest outbreak of all—in Brooklyn’s Orthodox Jewish community, writes Donald G. McNeil Jr. in the New York Times.

Authors of both studies say the prediction models need to be refined to account for counties’ uneven distribution of exemptions, which tend to cluster within ethnic, religious or educational communities.

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