An Unreliable Source

The CDC is rejigging its public data portal in response to reporting that revealed just how unreliable its estimates for nonfatal gunshot injuries are.
What makes the data so unreliable? A statistical model vulnerable to sudden sample shifts.
Without a dedicated national database of shooting incidents, the pool of hospitals analyzed by the CDC is prone to shifting, causing broad swings in the data.
This analysis found that in a single swap, a hospital was added that clocked 100X more nonfatal gun injuries than its predecessor—and that the CDC’s numbers are out of step with other reliable sources on the topic.

The Trace


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