250 Million COVID-19 Cases Expected in Africa

A man walks past a COVID-19 awareness mural in Nairobi, Kenya. May 2, 2020. Image: Donwilson Odhiambo/SOPA Images/LightRocket/Getty
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A man walks past a COVID-19 awareness mural in Nairobi, Kenya. May 2, 2020. Image: Donwilson Odhiambo/SOPA Images/LightRocket/Getty

47 African countries can expect a quarter billion COVID-19 cases, according to a new WHO model, though they will likely suffer fewer deaths over a longer time than the US and Europe, The Guardian reports.

The model homed in on country-specific risk exposure by tailoring its assumptions to Africa’s particular socio-ecological factors—such as sparse road networks and limited travel, The Economist reports.
 
The model predicts 190,000 deaths across the continent, The Guardian notes.

The researchers singled out Africa’s relatively young age profile as a key factor behind lower transmission rates. Lower obesity rates and limited transport links will also help slow the spread.

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