The Dire Forecasts That Haven’t Panned Out

Infectious diseases like HIV, malaria, typhoid—all hit lower-income countries hardest. 

Not so with COVID-19.

  • India has 1.3 billion people, and a death rate just 1/10th that of the US

  • Nigeria has 200 million and a death rate less than 1/100th that of the US

The “why” has baffled researchers and raised a slew of difficult questions about how risk is calculated.

The Quote: “Is the grandfather of the Orou family in Benin, sharing a home with children and grandchildren who go out and about in the city, more vulnerable than the Smith couple, seventy-five and eighty-two years old, who reside in an assisted-living facility in Long Island with dozens of other elderly people, attended to by a rotating crew of visiting nurses?”
The New Yorker

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