There’s been plenty of alarm—but how likely are breakthrough infections, really?
Based on recent US data, it looks like around 1 in 5,000 per day, according to estimates from Utah, Virginia, and King County, Washington.
These odds vary by region and vaccination uptake. Infection rates in the least vaccinated states are ~4X as high as in the most vaccinated states.
Mythbusting: While it’s been reported that viral load was just as high in vaccinated people compared to the unvaccinated, a crucial nuance was lost in the headlines:
- “In a vaccinated person, the human immune system launches a powerful response and tends to prevail quickly—often before the host body gets sick or infects others.”
- Not so for the unvaccinated.