Breakthrough Data

There’s been plenty of alarm about vaccine breakthrough infections—but how likely are they, really?
Based on recent US data from recent weeks, it looks like around 1 in 5,000, according to estimates from Utah, Virginia, and King County, Washington, all of which have reported details on COVID-19 infections by vaccination status.
These odds of course vary by region, and vaccination uptake. Infection rates in the least vaccinated states are ~4X as high as in the most vaccinated states.
Another talking point that gained a lot of traction was that viral load was just as high in vaccinated people compared to the unvaccinated—but a crucial nuance was lost in the headlines:
“In a vaccinated person, the human immune system launches a powerful response and tends to prevail quickly — often before the host body gets sick or infects others.” Not so for the unvaccinated.
The New York Times

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